jeudi 28 février 2008
jeudi 7 février 2008
All Eyes On The Nonfarm Payrolls.
The US Dollar traded with mixed results yesterday as another day of economic data left a cloud over the straining US economy. Today we look ahead to critical US data, namely Non-Farm Payroll, which should map the direction the dollar will take after a week of important economic data. After the 50bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve earlier this week, investors shifted focus toward the greenback. Yesterday saw the release of a basket of key news events from the US that shaped the day’s trading behaviors. Core PCE Price Index, ECI, Personal Spending, and Unemployment Claims were all released at 13:30 yesterday within expected forecasts. Unemployment Claims returned at 375K, rising by just under 70K to reach its highest level since October 2005. Finally, to end the US news day Chicago PMI returned with less than stellar results, but did not have a big affect on the day’s trading. Today NonFarm Payrolls is on tap. It will play a huge roll in determining the effectiveness of the 150bp accumulated rate cut since the last payrolls were released. Fed Chairman has noted on several occasions that the Labor market was an important part of the economic slowdown. Early indications put the payroll figure at just under 70K, which according to many investors will not be enough to revamp the greenback. More importantly for the short term is that the other key dat figures set to be released today are all dollar negative. Consumer sentiment, manufacturing ISM, construction spending and average hourly wages are all set to return with negative results, as they represent the more unstable sectors of the US economy. If Non Farm Payrolls returns with greater gains than initially forecasted, we should see a steady rise in the dollar in the short term.
The Greenback Floats On Calm Water Today
After a week full of mixed U.S. economic data, a steady stream of negative news from the U.S. housing sector and even after the reduction of the interest rate, the greenback is only marginally lower. Friday’s dismal U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report sent the USD near record-lows against the EUR. The highly-anticipated NFP report showed that employers shed 17K jobs through the month of January - the first negative figure in 4 years. However, an impressive recovery eventually left the USD slightly higher through the late Friday New York trading session. The U.S. currency rose against the EUR after a report showing the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in January, helping the greenback to recover from news of the contraction in the labor market. Nonetheless, the overall U.S. economy is cooling. The loss of 17K of jobs, as was reflected by the NFP report, makes it difficult to argue that the U.S. economy is not already in a recession. The forecast is that the Federal Reserve will need to continue to lower interest rates and unless there is a strong rebound in job growth during this month, it is realistic to expect an additional 0.25% point rate cut somewhere in the next 2 months.
Today the most significant news to come out of the U.S. will be the Factory Orders figures. The figure is expected to release at 2.3%, almost twice higher than in the prior month. During the week, traders will also closely follow the figures of the Nonfarm Productivity index as well as Unemployment Claims and the Pending Home Sales indices.
It appears that the negative US releases will cause the greenback to continue its bearishness, at least until a spur of positive releases will hit the board.
Today the most significant news to come out of the U.S. will be the Factory Orders figures. The figure is expected to release at 2.3%, almost twice higher than in the prior month. During the week, traders will also closely follow the figures of the Nonfarm Productivity index as well as Unemployment Claims and the Pending Home Sales indices.
It appears that the negative US releases will cause the greenback to continue its bearishness, at least until a spur of positive releases will hit the board.
ISM Non Manufacturing On Tap Today.
Yesterday, saw a return to mixed results by the greenback against its most commonly traded currency pairs, as the week continues to be driven by how world economies react to the unstable and disappointing US economy. Last Friday’s release of the Non Farm payrolls could still have a lasting effect on dollar value, as the 17K job loss from January had initially ravaged the greenback, leaving some uncertainty as to if and for how long it will be a factor.
A large portion of the focus for this week will not be on US economic data alone, but outside data which in large part will be reacting to last week’s full schedule from the US.
Interest rate statements will be announced this week in Australia, Europe and Great Britain, each of which are expected to react differently to the greenback’s 125bp cut over the last 2 weeks by the Federal Reserve. Firstly, Australia is expected to raise their interest rate to 7%, a 25bp bump from its benchmark rate, as Australian economists expect to see record highs for the Aussie dollar against the USD, which could breach the 90 cent mark today. The British, on the other hand, seem to be leaning toward rate cuts to try and revive the British economy. As the week continues on, a small collection of important US economic data will be released. Pending Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Non-Farm Productivity are all set to individually push the greenback forward. On tap today is the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for the month of January. The 15:00 GMT release is expected to fall slightly from 54.4 to 53.0 but should not cause as much volatility as usual, due to the small expected change. The manufacturing figure, coupled with 3 less significant figures to be released today, will likely keep the dollar trading within a small range.
A large portion of the focus for this week will not be on US economic data alone, but outside data which in large part will be reacting to last week’s full schedule from the US.
Interest rate statements will be announced this week in Australia, Europe and Great Britain, each of which are expected to react differently to the greenback’s 125bp cut over the last 2 weeks by the Federal Reserve. Firstly, Australia is expected to raise their interest rate to 7%, a 25bp bump from its benchmark rate, as Australian economists expect to see record highs for the Aussie dollar against the USD, which could breach the 90 cent mark today. The British, on the other hand, seem to be leaning toward rate cuts to try and revive the British economy. As the week continues on, a small collection of important US economic data will be released. Pending Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Non-Farm Productivity are all set to individually push the greenback forward. On tap today is the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for the month of January. The 15:00 GMT release is expected to fall slightly from 54.4 to 53.0 but should not cause as much volatility as usual, due to the small expected change. The manufacturing figure, coupled with 3 less significant figures to be released today, will likely keep the dollar trading within a small range.
The Greenback Corrects Localy.
It has been a long time since we have seen a broad based greenback rally, including against the JPY, where despite a widespread liquidation of carry trades, the USD/JPY barely budged.
The USD rose yesterday despite a surprise drop in the ISM non-manufacturing index. Trading was volatile largely on the back of a significant contraction in ISM services figures which came in at 41.9, the lowest reading since Oct 2001.
That intensifies concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, pressuring the Fed to cut rates further. Currently, the Fed Fund Futures are pricing a 70% chance of another 50bp cut next month.
Along with this, it’s important to mention that there are signs in the FOMC policy statement from last week according to which, the Fed may moderate its aggressive policy actions. Nevertheless, if the U.S. financial markets will destabilize once again, there is no doubt that Federal Reserve will cut again. The U.S. economy is in trouble and it seems as if the recession has hit. The continuing deterioration of the labor market, housing market and now the service sector, leaves little doubt that the biggest economy is falling into a recession. As for today’s’ U.S. calendar, expect Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs indices on tap. Both of these indicators are due to be released at 13:30 GMT. Later today, the Philadelphia Fed President Plosser is scheduled to deliver a speech. It appears that the greenback might continue yesterday’s correction move before probably initiating another bearish move.
The USD rose yesterday despite a surprise drop in the ISM non-manufacturing index. Trading was volatile largely on the back of a significant contraction in ISM services figures which came in at 41.9, the lowest reading since Oct 2001.
That intensifies concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, pressuring the Fed to cut rates further. Currently, the Fed Fund Futures are pricing a 70% chance of another 50bp cut next month.
Along with this, it’s important to mention that there are signs in the FOMC policy statement from last week according to which, the Fed may moderate its aggressive policy actions. Nevertheless, if the U.S. financial markets will destabilize once again, there is no doubt that Federal Reserve will cut again. The U.S. economy is in trouble and it seems as if the recession has hit. The continuing deterioration of the labor market, housing market and now the service sector, leaves little doubt that the biggest economy is falling into a recession. As for today’s’ U.S. calendar, expect Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs indices on tap. Both of these indicators are due to be released at 13:30 GMT. Later today, the Philadelphia Fed President Plosser is scheduled to deliver a speech. It appears that the greenback might continue yesterday’s correction move before probably initiating another bearish move.
The greenback has been appreciating
The greenback has been appreciating sharply against the EUR since the release of the surprisingly weak U.S NFP report last Friday. Many analysts are still at odds as to why the greenback appreciated last Friday since the weak NFP report should have added to the existing bearish dollar sentiment. Also there was more significant negative data for the greenback this week as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released on Tuesday at 41.9 which indicated a sharp contraction in every major component of the report from new orders, to employment and to business activity. This negative data should have thrown the greenback to the bears as these disappointing key economic figures practically assure another Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March. This rate cut in March may once again be 0.50% as the Fed will make a last ditch attempt to pull the U.S economy out of a recession. Therefore this weeks’ greenback rally against the EUR is somewhat of an economic phenomenon from the fundamental perspective. Also the greenback continued its rally against the EUR yesterday as traders remained cautious ahead of todays ECB Interest rate Announcement. The main theory as to why the greenback is currently rallying against EUR on the back of this weeks’ very negative U.S data, is that many analysts expect the U.S economy to rebound in the second half of 2008 while the Euro-zone growth is believed to be heading for a freefall. Also the Fed is prepared to continue slashing rates in order to prevent the U.S economy from slipping into recession, while the ECB may stick to its hawkish stance with regards to its monetary policy today amid signs of slowing economic growth in the Euro-zone. So on a broader and longer term scale it seems that the when the U.S economy will be in reparation phase the Euro-zone economy may very well be climbing into the dark pit of slowing growth and rising inflation. This is one of the main explanations for this weeks’ greenback rally as at the end of a dark tunnel there is always light. Also the fact that the greenback is currently appreciating while there is very negative U.S data is another sure sign that this rally could be the beginning of a longer term trend.
Yesterday there was no real market moving news from the U.S and traders will shift all their attention to today’s interest rate announcements by the ECB and the BoE, therefore the greenback is likely remain relatively flat leading up to the announcements and the speech by President Trichet. However there could be sharp volatiliy on the back of these economic announcements. Traders should remain cautious as we could be at the beginning of a rallying greenback trend, which is not sufficiently justifiable at the moment.
Yesterday there was no real market moving news from the U.S and traders will shift all their attention to today’s interest rate announcements by the ECB and the BoE, therefore the greenback is likely remain relatively flat leading up to the announcements and the speech by President Trichet. However there could be sharp volatiliy on the back of these economic announcements. Traders should remain cautious as we could be at the beginning of a rallying greenback trend, which is not sufficiently justifiable at the moment.
Forex Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
The pair is trading in a range for the past three days showing after the sharp bearish correction and is now consolidating around 1.4620. The 4 hour chart is showing first buds of a bullish momentum whereas the daily chart is still bearish. Selling on high might be preferable today.
GBP/USD
The 4 hour chart is showing that the bearish momentum is regaining strength. The slow stochastic indicates that this trend might continue until the cable reaches the 1.9520 level. The daily studies confirm the bearish notion, and it appears preferable to go short today.
USD/JPY
The ongoing tight range continues still without a break of any significant importance. The daily chart is maintaining a slightly bearish indication yet with no distinct conclusion. The Bollinger banks are tightening which indicates that the break might be imminent. Traders are advised to hold for the break and than swing into it.
USD/CHF
The bullish correction move continues as the momentum appears to be continuing. The RSI and slow stochastic of the 4 hour chart are showing a floating status which strengthen the notion that the bullish move might continue. The current target price is around 1.1040.
Wild – Crude Oil
There is a narrowing bearish channel forming on the 4 hour chart as Oil now floats on the upper level of it. All oscillators show that an additional bearish break through the 86.20 level will unleash a much stronger bearish move which can provide Forex trader a great opportunity of a strong swing.
The pair is trading in a range for the past three days showing after the sharp bearish correction and is now consolidating around 1.4620. The 4 hour chart is showing first buds of a bullish momentum whereas the daily chart is still bearish. Selling on high might be preferable today.
GBP/USD
The 4 hour chart is showing that the bearish momentum is regaining strength. The slow stochastic indicates that this trend might continue until the cable reaches the 1.9520 level. The daily studies confirm the bearish notion, and it appears preferable to go short today.
USD/JPY
The ongoing tight range continues still without a break of any significant importance. The daily chart is maintaining a slightly bearish indication yet with no distinct conclusion. The Bollinger banks are tightening which indicates that the break might be imminent. Traders are advised to hold for the break and than swing into it.
USD/CHF
The bullish correction move continues as the momentum appears to be continuing. The RSI and slow stochastic of the 4 hour chart are showing a floating status which strengthen the notion that the bullish move might continue. The current target price is around 1.1040.
Wild – Crude Oil
There is a narrowing bearish channel forming on the 4 hour chart as Oil now floats on the upper level of it. All oscillators show that an additional bearish break through the 86.20 level will unleash a much stronger bearish move which can provide Forex trader a great opportunity of a strong swing.
forex
Forex est le surnom universellement donné au marché des changes, ce terme est issu de la contraction des termes anglais Foreign Exchange. Le forex est encore appelé FX. Sur ce marché, les devises sont échangées l’une contre l’autre, à des taux de change qui varient sans cesse.
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